Live signals compiled by frontier AI. Each classified as pushing toward TACO (he folds) or NOTTACO (he holds).
Two stacks of reasoning, continuously updated. The balance shifts the verdict.
The real question isn't whether he chickens out. It's whether he chickens out of the chickening out. And then whether he chickens out of that.
Every TACO event hits markets like a delta function. Each asset is a different oscillator. The overshoot is tradeable. Parametric fits from real 1-minute IBKR data.
Every TACO and potential-TACO event of the Trump II presidency. Timestamped, classified, measured. The historical chicken-out rate is the prior.
| Date | Event | Outcome | ES Peak | BZ Peak | Signal Strength |
|---|
Four frontier models, different reasoning styles, one question. Democracy of machines.
What each outcome means for the instruments that move on this question. Based on fitted parametric models from real TACO events.
How the most sophisticated AI prediction system works. On one question.
Truth Social, Reuters, Bloomberg, X/Twitter via Grok x_search. Every statement, action, market reaction catalogued in real time.
Parametric oscillator models fitted to 1-minute IBKR tick data. Two-phase decay, driven response, step-with-delay. Overshoot fraction = the tradeable alpha.
N-th order chicken-out detection. Game theory applied to a man who plays zero-order games. The recursion depth IS the prediction.
Claude Opus, Grok, GPT-5, Gemini Ultra. Each runs independently with full evidence. Disagreement = uncertainty. Consensus = conviction.
Whale detection on tariff prediction markets. When high-signal accounts cross the ask in size, that's a leading indicator. Smart money first.
Every TACO event since Jan 20, 2025 catalogued and measured. The base rate is the strongest signal. He usually folds. But not always.